CLIMAAX MARCAdapt project - Barcelona workshop

2025. 05. 28.

Municipality of 12th District of Budapest (Hegyvidék Municipality) participates as a pilot region in the Horizon CLIMAAX project (CLIMAte risk and vulnerability Assessment framework and toolboX) in the framework of a Sub-Grant Agreement between 2024 and 2026. The objective of the project is to learn the climate risk assessment methodology developed by the CLIMAAX partnership and apply it on the territory of Hegyvidék Municipality on urban block level.

Basic information about the project

Beneficiary: Municipality of 12th District of Budapest (Hegyvidék Municipality)
Project Acronym: MARCAdapt (Managing Risks towards a Climate Adaptive Hegyvidék)
Duration: October 1, 2024 - July 31, 2026
Budget: € 163,500 (100% EU funded)

Hegyvidék Municipality participated in a workshop organized by the CLIMAAX partnership in Barcelona, June 10-11, 2025 where a poster was presented about the progress of the pilot project. (See the poster here) This article proposes a more detailed, extended version of the information presented on the poster.

URBAN BLOCKS, CLIMATE SHOCKS

Adapting climate risk assessment on urban block level in city environment

BACKGROUND – About the 12th District of Budapest

The 12th District of Budapest (Hegyvidék Municipality) is located on the western side of the city of Budapest, Hungary. The high vulnerability of Hegyvidék Municipality is mainly determined by its the specific microclimate caused by hilly topography (up to 400 m difference in level between the highest and the lowest points) and the local population characteristics: 33% of the local population are elderly (above 60).

In Budapest a double municipal government system is in place, which means that some sectors are operated by the City of Budapest, other areas are managed by the district municipalities. Responsibilities practically vary street by street, hindering harmonized interventions in case of climate hazards.

Hegyvidék Municipality has to face the accelerating rise of the annual avg. temperature, locally reaching an avg. growth of +1,25 °C. Also, heavy rain events and flash floods have occurred in Budapest more and more frequently (avg. + 2 days with heavy rain/year) while drought periods and heatwaves have become longer (avg. +4 days of drought/year; avg.+18,4 days with heatwaves/year) in the last decades.

Hegyvidék Municipality carries out 3 risk assessments in the project: heavy rainfall, heatwaves, drought. A community involvement programme is also part of the project.

ABOUT_US_terkep

Location and main characteristics of Hegyvidék Municipality

Deliverable Phase 1, Chapters 1.1 Background, 2.1. Scoping, 2.2 Risk Exploration

PROJECT TEAM AND STAKEHOLDERS

Project management team

The Green Office and the International Projects Office of Hegyvidék Municipality are in charge of the general project management, the coordination of the involved experts, and the communication with other municipal departments, the Mayor and the City Council.

External experts

In addition, three Budapest-based external experts are involved in the implementation of the project:

External data scientist - Milán Janosov phd.
External climate change expert - EnviAdapt Kft. (Lilian Fejes)
External communication and participation expert - Urbavis Kft. (Dorottya Teveli-Horváth phd., Anita Szőllőssy)

Stakeholders

Stakeholders relevant to the project were divided into two broad categories, according to whether cooperation and consultation with them would be more appropriate in professional and analytical tasks (“Expert stakeholder group”), or whether cooperation with them would be more relevant in community engagement and public participation (“Community stakeholder group”).

Expert stakeholder groups

Professionals related to city operation and the research focus of the CLIMAAX project from Budapest and Hungary.

Universities, public and private research centers
Regional actors related to the blue-green infrastructure of Hegyvidék
Companies of the City of Budapest (e.g. Budapest Sewage Company, Budapest Transport Center)
Relatable projects (e.g. INTERREG, LIFE etc.)
National public bodies (e.g. ministries)
Others (insurance companies, telecommunication companies etc.)

Community stakeholder groups

Representatives of local sub-communities who are the most vulnerable and facing different effects of climate-related events in the research area of Hegyvidék.

Educational institutions (nurseries, kindergartens)
Healthcare institutions (public and private, general and specific)
Social care institutions (elderly homes, homeless care etc.)
Religious institutions
Law enforcement bodies (police, civil police etc.)
NGOs
Cultural, sport etc. communities
Condominiums, informal neighborhood communities

Deliverable Phase 1, Chapters 1.3 Project team, 2.1.3 Participation and ownership

HEAVY RAINFALL

Stormwater runs off from the hills without infiltration (due to the growing paved surfaces) surcharging the sewer system, flooding the lower city regions, and causing damage to streets and buildings. As the sewer system is old (more than 100 years in some areas) and was designed for a much smaller urban area, it lacks today capacity to receive the increasing rainwater runoff caused by both climate change and urban sprawl.

The analysis is focusing on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, as well as how these are expected to change because of climate change. To this end, climate model data spanning 30-year “climate windows” will be used to examine future return periods and extreme rainfall amounts. A historical database is also being developed to analyze past local events, aiming to extract as much information as possible related to damage incidents. The analysis will also take into account runoff and land cover characteristics of the project area, traffic data, and the vulnerability of the drainage system.

Relevant stakeholders, databases, opportunities for cooperation

Technological University of Budapest, Department of Water Utilities and Environmental Engineering	Cooperation in the past, runoff modelling, sewer vulnerability (LIFE in RUNOFF project)
Budapest Transport Center	Transport, traffic, also road safety and accidents data closely linked to weather extremes
Budapest Sewage Company	Data about spills and leaks highlight important points

Heavy Rainfall hazard assessment sub-results for the city of Budapest based on regional climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX database:

Potential indicators for urban block-level heavy rain risk analysis in the 12th District of Budapest (Hegyvidék):

Estimated rainwater runoff paths on the surface based on relief and slope (Data source: LIFE in RUNOFF project)

Vulnerability of the sewer system based on the length, age, diameter, slope and the estimated amount of rainwater charge of the different sewer sections (Data source: LIFE in RUNOFF project)

Deliverable Phase 1, 2.3.2 Workflow #2 – Heavy rainfall, 2.5 Preliminary Monitoring and Evaluation

DROUGHT

In summer, the irrigation of public green spaces and the protection of people (especially elderly people and families with young children) from the extreme heat can be challenging. While irrigation of green spaces might help to protect the urban green areas, it has been recently observed that some species’ resilience extremely weakens during drought and suffer from disease and degradation in the following years. Moreover, the level of the river Danube and the underground water reservoirs decrease, affecting the drinking water system in drought periods.

Hegyvidék Municipality decided to apply an alternative methodology about the risk caused by drought on the urban green areas. Urban green areas include city parks, public gardens, tree rows, flower beds, bee pastures, natural protected area enclosed in the urban tissues and a heavily used forest area which is basically a touristic attraction in the district.

Expected climate hazards such as precipitation deficits are identified using the WASP index. Exposure is described by the identification of plant species and the extent of green areas, taking into account runoff and orientation. To determine the vulnerability of green areas, indicators such as layering, irrigation, mowing and visitation of green areas are used. In addition, the on-site retention of green waste and the built-up density of the surrounding areas are also included in the indicator of the vulnerability.

Relevant stakeholders, databases, opportunities for cooperation

Urban and green infrastructure planners	Methodological support on urban green spaces, satellite data
Forest managers, national parks	Local specificities, identification of problematic places, concrete implementers, data providers
Local green space managers, gardeners	Local specificities, identification of problematic places, concrete implementers, data providers

Relative drought hazard sub-results on NUTS3 regional level in Hungary:

Potential indicators for urban block-level relative drought risk analysis in the 12th District of Budapest (Hegyvidék):

High precision (5 cm) land cover data showing the exact extent and different types of green spaces (e.g. forest, lawn, bush, flower bed), and mapping the exact location and shape of the canopy of trees (Data source: Envirosense Kft.)

Visitation rate based on telecommunication data. Heavily used green areas deteriorate faster and are less resistant to drought.

Deliverable Phase 1, 2.3.3 Workflow #3 Relative Drought, 2.5 Preliminary Monitoring and Evaluation

HEATWAVES

More and more frequent and longer heatwaves are experienced year by year in Budapest, which affects especially the downtown area of Hegyvidék Municipality. Due to high density urban tissue, lack of green space, and high traffic, urban heat islands form easily in these areas. In addition, the share of the elderly (above 60 years old) exceeds 25% in the population of these neighborhoods. To sum up, the vulnerable population segment is concentrated in the area most exposed to heatwaves in Hegyvidék Municipality.

To investigate heatwave hazard in the area of Hegyvidék Municipality, we use climate investigations with the SURFEX (Masson et al., 2013) land surface model for the future projection with 1 km grid resolution. Model runs by Hungaromet NZrt. are performed with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios for the period 2031-2060 (reference period 1970-2000). Three indicators are incorporated in the risk analysis: first degree heat alarm days (Tavg≥ 25 °C), second degree heat alarm days (Tavg for 3 days ≥25 °C) and tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20 °C).

Landsat surface temperature data are used to explore areas more exposed to the heat island phenomenon. In addition, land cover data, traffic data for heatwave days, tree crown size, and exposure to typical building orientation are incorporated.

To identify the vulnerable population, demographic data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office are used, including the number of people over 65 and with disabilities. A key indicator is the walking distance to public transportation stops and the access to important services e.g. medical services. We also consider the masonry, age and air conditioning of the buildings.

Relevant stakeholders, databases, opportunities for cooperation

Expert stakeholder group	Determination of indicators, data providers
Organisations working with vulnerable groups	Representation of the vulnerable population, identification of soft aspects
Citizens	Sharing own experiences, mapping specific problematic locations

Heatwaves hazard and risk assessment sub-results on urban block level in Hegyvidék Municipality:

HEATWAVE_hazard

HEATWAVE_exposure

HEATWAVE_vulnerability

HEATWAVE_risk

Deliverable Phase 1, 2.3.1 Workflow #1 – Heatwaves, 2.5 Preliminary Monitoring and Evaluation

DEMO AREA FOR THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE LOCAL INDICATORS

A downtown, densely built-up area with green spaces.

The figure below demonstrates some features and problematic locations suggested by the expert and the communitcy stakeholder groups related to heavy rain, heatwaves and drought. Based on the stakeholders’ inputs, we formulated the exact indicators and the data sources to be incorporated in the risk analyses.

DEMO_terkep

HEAVY RAIN
Indicator	Risk component	Data source	Explanation
1. Rainwater runoff	Exposure	Runoff modelling (LIFE in RUNOFF project)	A runoff modelling (SWMM) is developed for the district, allowing the identification of the flooded areas for different rain quantity.
2. Low points	Vulnerability	Relief, slope (LIFE in RUNOFF project)	Rainwater tends to accumulate in topographical low points.
3. Vulnerability of the sewer system	Vulnerability	Vulnerability assessment of the sewer system (LIFE in RUNOFF project)	The vulnerability assessment of the sewer system allows the identification of weak sections, where surchage is most probable. It is based on for example the sewer’s age and diameter.
4. Traffic jams and delays during heavy rain events	Vulnerability	Budapest Public Transport traffic data	In case of heavy rain traffic jams regularly occur at specific locations.

HEATWAVES
Indicator	Risk component	Data source	Explanation
1. Households with only +65-year old people	Vulnerability	National statistical data	Elderly people living alone aren’t immidiately assisted when they feel ill in heatwaves.
2. Bus stop equipment type	Exposure	Budapest Public Transport data base	Elderly people travel daily by public transport even in heatwaves. Shaded bus stops are crucial for safe waiting.
3. Shading by trees and buildings	Exposure	Land cover data (tree canopy size), shade mapping	Shades and trees are able to moderate temperature in public spaces.
4.Geographical orientation	Exposure	LIFE in RUNOFF project	South and West oriented areas are the most exposed to strong sunlight.
5. Share of built-up area	Exposure	Land cover data	Buildings and paved surfaces intensify heat island effects.
6.Building age and masonry	Vulnerability	National statistical data	Old buildings are rarely insulated, while different building materials are less resistant to heatwaves, causing high tempreatures in the flats.
7.Location of public toilets and drinking water fountains	Exposure	Municipal data base	Visits to green spaces are essential during heatwaves, however only the availability of public toilets and drinking water allows longer stays.
8.Suitability of public transport vehicles to disabled people, air conditioned vehicles.	Vulnerability	Budapest Public Transport data base	Elderly people travel daily by public transport even in heatwaves. The easy access and the air conditioning of the vehicles are essential for safe travels.
9. Walking distance to the closest public transport stop	Vulnerability	Own walkability calculation	Elderly people travel daily by public transport even in heatwaves. The walking distance tot he closest and well connected stop is essential for safe access.

DROUGHT
Indicator	Risk component	Data source	Explanation
1. Irrigation system	Vulnerability	Municipal green space maintenance data base	Irrigated green areas are more resistant to drought.
2. Pedestrian visitation rate	Vulnerability	Telecommunication data	Green areas crowded on a daily basis deteriorate fast and become les resilient.
3. Mowing order	Vulnerability	Municipal green space maintenance data base	Green areas mowed less frequently are more resilient to heatwaves than regularly mowed lawns.
4. Size and built-up rate of green spaces	Exposure	Land cover data	Small and tightly enclosed green spaces by dense urban tissue are less resistant to drought.
5. Vertical layers of the vegetation	Vulnerability	Land cover data, Municipal green space maintenance data base	Complex, multi-layered and diverse vegetation are the strongest and most resilient to drought.

PROGRESS

October 2024 – March 2025

Learning the Climaax methodology
Test of workflows on regional level
Collection of regional data, mapping local data collection options
Development of local stakeholder analysis
Development of community involvement methodology
1 expert stakeholder meeting focused on heatwaves and heavy rain

March 2025 – June 2025

Starting the local adaptation of the heatwaves workflow
Collection of relevant local data
1 expert stakeholder meeting focused on drought
1 community stakeholder meeting focused on vulnerable groups
Climaax Workshop in Barcelona

July 2025 – October 2025

Local adaptation of the 3 workflows
Bilateral meetings with stakeholders
Risk analysis
Validation of results with stakeholders
Publications and dissemination actions
Community involvement activities

Deliverable Phase 1, Conclusions Phase 1 – Climate Risk Assessment, 4. Progress Evaluation and contribution to future phases

CONTACT US

zoldpont@hegyvidek.hu

More about the CLIMAAX project: https://www.climaax.eu/